This seems to be a great argument for the late adopters. Why invest in the great leap forward? This looks like a pretty poor ROI, with high risk. Why not wait until other people have wasted energy and resources separating the wheat from the chaff? Let us know when everything has sorted itself out, and maybe then we'll start to consider it.
The early adopters have several possible responses to this argument.
- Just because some of the stuff fails to achieve widespread adoption doesn't mean it's of no value. We shall be getting technical learning, business benefits and competitive advantage - while you're still reading the brochures.
- The timing of the consolidation is uncertain. By being in at the start, we shall be hot and ready when the consolidation occurs.
- Early participants get to influence the outcomes. So there.